Confirmation Bias: The Mythology of Achievement

Being an interior monologue:

People carve out a network of mutually supportive sponsors and allies within the organisation. They create a mythology of achievement. They create proxy metrics and anecdotes that validate their role, their approach, their work, and their value to the organisation. Confirmation bias reigns supreme. We have a psychological need to feel secure. To validate. To be validated.

“I’m hitting all my KPIs. I’m doing great work. My team is doing great work. We’re okay. Everything’s fine. We believe each other. We believe in what we’re doing. We have a great culture. We have a supportive team. None of the executives are complaining. Too loudly. We’re meeting deadlines. We’re managing risk. We’re creating deliverables. All the boxes are getting ticked. All the processes are in place. We’re good.”

I validate your work. You validate my work. In front of the executives, we validate each other’s work. This is how good teams work. We’re creating relationships of trust and credibility. We’re bonding.

But what we’re really doing is finding problems we know how to solve.

“We can’t solve the big problem — but we can solve parts of the big problem. That’s got to help, right?”

We use methods, tools, and skills we’ve used before, that we’ve learned over many years. We cope. We adapt. We’re agile.

Rank and file workers can hide (“keep your head down”). But the CIO can’t hide. We have to have someone to sack if everything goes pear-shaped. The CIO knows he’s going to get sacked after three years. That’s part of his job.

CIO Job Description

“Look busy for three years. Create convincing stories. When anyone asks what you’re doing, why you’re doing it, or why you’re doing it a certain way, tell your convincing stories. Speak fast and loud. You need to be assertive. Forceful. You need to look confident. Don’t look weak or doubtful. Enumerate your achievements and your process. Then leave abruptly to attend another urgent meeting to which you’re late. After three years, get sacked.”

After five to six years, when it becomes obvious the last strategy hasn’t miraculously worked, some of the old executives leave, some get sacked. A new team of executives arrive. They define a new strategy, a new vision. They know the problems. They know the answers. All their new solutions can be summed up in neat, short, punchy quotes and soundbites. The new executives are confident. That’s what everyone expects. That’s what everyone needs. They have new strategic themes. After a while, the battleship starts to slowly change direction. This time, we’ll get it right. Surely we will.

What We Don’t Know

We don’t know what we don’t know. And we’re not interested in finding out. Because we don’t have any reason to go looking for the things we don’t know. If we don’t already know about those things, then — obviously — they can’t be important. If the things we don’t know were important — we’d know about them, wouldn’t we? I mean, we’re not idiots. Right? How could it be otherwise? Everything’s fine. No sharp objects are being poked violently through the thick skin of our delusional bubble of complacency.

Disruption. But Stable Disruption.

We have stability. Steady state. Equilibrium. Balance. Consistency. How can this be bad? We need some level of constancy and predictability to be able to get anything done. We can’t work in chaos. Yes, we do need disruption. Renewal. Rebirth. But we don’t want too much disruption. We want just the right amount of disruption. Goldilocks disruption. Manageable disruption. Disruption we can believe in. And cope with. It’s probably better if we invent our own disruption myths.

Above all else, we need to be seen to be doing something important. Or at least useful. Or something not totally stupid. Look busy. Your calendar must be full of meetings to attend. A full calendar is essential for everyone.

Dante is Always Relevant

“What avarice enacts is here declared
in the purgation of converted souls;
the mountain has no punishment more bitter.
Just as we did not lift our eyes on high
but set our sight on earthly things instead,
so justice here impels our eyes toward earth.
As avarice annulled in us the love
of any other good, and thus we lost
our chance for righteous works, so justice here
fetters our hands and feet and holds us captive;
and for as long as it may please our just
Lord, here we’ll be outstretched and motionless.” (Purg. XIX, 112–126)